To understand the background of the decline in Jersey's agriculture and tourism, some comparison must be made with similar localities. In this instance, I would suggest the South West of England, not as a perfect match, but as a locality which is sufficiently similar to bear comparison, and yet which is clearly not an offshore centre.
The links on this page (with selections shown for ease of use) demonstrate, I believe the same general decline in these industries. These are possibly more marked in Jersey - perhaps because of isolation, transport costs, travel costs and economies of scale. Perhaps, too, the finance industry plays a part in accelerating the process. However, such a decline in the UK suggests that even if there had not been a finance industry, these industries would have declined, and the Jersey economy could well have undergone a general slump much earlier than at present.
Hampton and Christensen have not assessed comparative trends, and I believe that this is a basic flaw in their thesis.
My alternative thesis is that while finance may have contributed to the decline in agriculture and tourism, it did not do so significantly, and helped to some extent to buffer the decline in those industries by diverting more funds and resources than would otherwise have been available. Finance, in this case, did not "crowd out" agriculture and tourism, but "filled the void" left by their contraction.
I have not had the time to explore all the statistics and correlations in any great detail, although I hope to do so at some time in the future. The point I am making, however, is that Hampton and Christensen should have examined this kind of data, and looked at this kind of alternative historical explanation, even if they ruled it out, but there is no evidence that I can see that they did so.
http://www.defra.gov.uk/erdp/docs/swchapter/section13/employment.htm
This examines the South-West of England, and notes that
In the South West the agricultural workforce declined by just under 10% between 1987 and 1997, compared with 15% for England as a whole. Alongside the decline in total agricultural workforce there has been a significant trend towards an increasingly part-time workforce. The fall of over 10,000 full-time workers over the last ten years contrasts with an increase of 3,000 part-time workers. The number of seasonal or casual workers has also dropped, by about 1,400. As a result, the downward pressure on wages has led to reduced spending in the local rural economy.http://www.planning-inspectorate.gov.uk/pi_journal/pins20_changing.htm
Lists factors affecting UK farming:
"include the strength of the currency, the BSE crisis, the collapse of lamb and pig prices, trade liberalisation, globalisation, CAP reform, the ever-increasing attractiveness of the countryside as a place to live (whilst working in towns), with the consequent pressure on rural house prices and the decreasing attractiveness of farming to a younger generation of potential farmers"The report also comments on the general state of agriculture over time:
" In terms of the farming work force, there has been continual decline over the last 50 years, so that it now accounts for just two per cent of the national workforce. Intensive labour has in that time been replaced by intensive mechanisation and capital investment." " As a proportion of Gross National Product, agriculture has declined from three per cent in 1970 to one per cent in 1999 (whilst farm output has increased). MAFF produces a census every year from a substantial sample of the country's 145,000 main holdings (this excludes very small holdings). The June 1999 survey identified that, in the two years since 1997, the total farm employment figure had reduced by four per cent from 417,000 to 403,000. Within that figure, perhaps more startlingly, the number of farm workers (ie not farm owners and their families or salaried managers) had reduced by nearly ten per cent, from about 183,000 to 166,000. A study carried out in Hampshire for the county council in 1997 found that, in the years 1985 to 1995, there had been a 24 per cent decline in farm employment. That alone is significant but, furthermore, it puts the national trend exposed by the 1997-1999 figures into sharp perspective." " Hidden by the overall statistics is another interesting feature. Whilst I have been unable to identify national figures, the Hampshire study found that only 65 per cent of those surveyed put farming as their main source of income. There is no reason to suppose this is an unusual proportion. Of necessity many farms must derive income from other sources so as to support the farm income." " The Hampshire study was interesting for a different reason in its exposure of perhaps surprising and rapidly changing dynamics in farming. It has always been thought of as a farming county, and has an unusually high proportion of family owned farms (90 per cent). Over 20 per cent already obtain more than a quarter of their income from non-farming activities. Almost half intend to retire in the next ten years and a similar proportion currently have no succesor on retirement (it may not be the same half of course). As in Oxfordshire, over 50 per cent stated that they had redundant buildings available for diversification."http://www.culture.gov.uk/pdf/tour_etc.pdf
http://www.geoprojects.co.uk/vicky.htm
dominated the tourism scene. Around 20 years ago they accommodated some 75% of holidaymakers
The decline in tourism volume at seaside resorts is due to two major factors -
Seaside` resorts however still account for around a quarter of tourist trips and a third of staying visitor expenditure in the UK.
|
Year |
1973 |
1980 |
1986 |
1988 |
1993 |
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% of all trips |
30 |
28 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
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|
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% of all nights |
40 |
38 |
33 |
32 |
30 |
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|
|
|
|
|
% of all expenditure |
45 |
41 |
34 |
33 |
31 |
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http://www.arasite.org/mpch1.html
"Cornwall is the most south-western county in Britain. It is a rural area with the majority of the population living in a few major towns, and the remainder living in small villages and farms dispersed around the county. The traditional occupations of farming, fishing and tin mining are in steep decline, and there is very little manufacturing or alternative employment opportunities other than tourism ."
" Cornwall was at the height of its popularity in the post-war period, but economic boom in Northern Europe during the 1960s meant that the package tour became accessible to the affluent working class in the manufacturing and industrial centres of England. Cheap overseas package deals were able to offer easy access to guaranteed sunshine at competitive prices. A relatively short drive to an international airport would take holidaymakers straight to the Costa del Sol whereas poor roads, particularly in the peripheral south west, meant a long and arduous car journey to Cornwall. The popularity of overseas holidays grew whilst Cornwall’s appeal began to wane. By the 1970s Cornish seaside resorts were in decline and as a result of lack of investment in infrastructure they began to look shabby and old-fashioned (Walvin, 1978). Cornwall’s image became one of nostalgia; a place for elderly visitors and for retirement. "